Rep. John Ley continues to question multiple numbers on the I-5 Bridge replacement project

John Ley 
for Clark County Today

When Lars Larson and I spoke a couple weeks ago, we talked about the fact that Program Administrator Greg Johnson and his Interstate Bridge Replacement Program (IBR) team refuse to verify information on numerous aspects of the Interstate 5 Bridge replacement project. “If nobody checks up, if nobody demands receipts or contracts or anything, in a sense it becomes as much as you can steal, as much as you can get away with,’’ I said.

It’s the old “show your work” in math or science class. The teacher needed to see if you correctly understood how to get the correct answer!

The I-5 Bridge replacement is the most expensive rail project in the history of the world on a per mile basis – $1 billion per mile. That apparently doesn’t trigger Johnson’s “warning” or “beware” sensors for possible fraud or overcharging.

Johnson made a stunning admission at last week’s C-TRAN Board meeting. “We guessed, but we guessed low,” he said, in relation to the cost of the entire project. The program manager of the largest transportation project in the history of the Portland metro area is guessing? 

To date, his organization gave us $3.2 billion to $4.8 billion, followed two years later with $5 billion to $7.5 billion, followed by “it’s going up again, but I can’t tell you for two years” now. Why on earth would we trust a project manager who “guesses” and has a proven track record of guessing wrong?

TriMet & light rail problems

In this case, Johnson chooses to accept the TriMet costs and demand for 19 new light rail vehicles. Paying $2 billion is ridiculous for a 1.83-mile light rail extension. 

• Problem #1 – There is zero need for 19 new vehicles. Both MAX light rail and transit ridership in general has been in decline for over a decade. 
• Problem #2 – The $15 million cost per vehicle is a total rip off. My recent article provided half a dozen examples of other light rail transit agencies paying between $3 million and $5 million per vehicle.  Yet Johnson accepts a $14 or $15 million cost for vehicles purchased 6 or 7 years from now.
• Problem #3 – TriMet promises nine departures an hour, or one train every 6.7 minutes. But Johnson refuses to check history. John Charles of the Cascade Policy Institute has reported multiple times that TriMet has made similar promises and failed to deliver every single time. 

TriMet cannot put any more than four departures an hour on any of their light rail lines. The choke point is the Steel Bridge over the Willamette River, which has one train every 90 seconds during rush hour. There is no room for more trains. 

Larson recently mentioned Randall O’Toole. His extensive research indicates Portland and similar cities can handle no more than 20 trains an hour. With five light rail lines converging in downtown Portland, that demonstrates the four per hour limit TriMet currently runs during peak commuter hours.

Yet the IBR’s Johnson accepts the TriMet “promise” for nine trains an hour. This impossible promise allows TriMet to justify the need for more light rail cars, in spite of the reality that the system cannot handle any more trains or cars.

Transit ridership problems

Johnson also said they are having to use a different model for projecting transit ridership. The Federal Transit Agency (FTA) requires Johnson to use the STOPS model, (Simplified Trips-on-Project Software). This was created over a decade ago, yet Greg Johnson’s team didn’t use it in their original submission to the federal government for the project. 

Johnson admitted that when they finish running the transit ridership projections through the STOPS model, “the numbers will go down.” Why didn’t this 42-year professional know he was required to use the FTA model? 

Citizens have been claiming his original projection of 26,000 to 33,000 transit riders on the I-5 corridor by 2045 is completely wrong. But Johnson has ignored the evidence – C-TRAN express bus ridership is less than 1,000 people a day going from Vancouver into Portland. Their express bus ridership has been in decline for well over a decade!

The ITT miscalculation

One option being talked about as a possible “solution” has been the Immersed Tube Tunnel. Retired engineer Bob Ortblad has been its primary proponent, saying it would be cheaper and could be built faster than the current “locally preferred alternative”. He cites the example of the George Massey tunnel in Vancouver, BC. The 8-lane, $4.15 billion toll free project will be completed in 2030. 

On July 17, 2021, Johnson presented initial findings and their Tunnel Concept Assessment. He praised his staff and their consultants. “We have done our research,” he said. “We brought in experts.”

Johnson said WSP “is one of the most creative international consulting firms in the world.” He told Ortblad: “We have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to answer your question, we have answered your question” in reference to an ITT option.

The team published a study indicating an ITT would need to dredge 8 million cubic yards of material to create the trench for the tunnel. Ortblad did the calculations and said it was just over 2 million cubic yards. A PR battle ensued as he revealed multiple flaws.

During a meeting with the Hayden Island community in 2022, Johnson had berated Ortblad and questioned his credentials during a heated discussion. “Bob has accused folks, who are licensed engineers, of malpractice,” Johnson said. “Bob, where’s your license? Or are you just a citizen who is interested? You are talking about folks who are licensed.”

Johnson told the Hayden Island crowd to “bring the heat” but defended his organization. “We’re not afraid to be challenged, but I will not stand for folks’ reputation being besmirched to say we are putting out inaccurate information.”

The IBR ultimately said they were wrong and said the actual amount of dredging would be 4 million cubic yards, half their original projection. “We have investigated your inquiry and were able to confirm an issue with the model,” the IBR said in an email. “Duplication occurred in the model where some excavation quantities were counted more than once.” They blamed “third party software.”

Ortblad has had other engineers review his calculations and maintains that only 2 million cubic yards of material would have to be dredged. The IBR calculation was off by a factor of four, he continues to assert.

An ITT would solve the problem the current proposal has with the Coast Guard. They demand “at least” the current 178 feet of clearance for maritime traffic. The tunnel would provide “unlimited” clearance, which is what the Coast Guard actually prefers.

Johnson also let the C-TRAN Board off the hook for paying TriMet light rail O&M costs. He said he has other sources of money, if C-TRAN refuses to cover the TriMet costs.

That’s a no-brainer for the C-TRAN Board. They need to ignore the demands of Vancouver Mayor Anne McEnerny-Ogle and REJECT paying for any aspect of TriMet’s light rail!

There is ample evidence that Johnson’s program team is getting numerous details wrong. Local elected leaders, including the C-TRAN Board, citizens and the federal Department of Transportation should scrutinize every aspect of the project. It is the people’s money. It is the largest public works project in the history of the Portland metro area.