Letter: Update – Extremely low bus ridership does not justify expensive TriMet light rail

🎧 Camas resident challenges IBR light rail with ridership data

Douglas Tweet says current IBR design ‘wastes precious space on the bridge at an exorbitant cost’

Editor’s note: Opinions expressed in this letter to the editor are those of the author alone and may not reflect the editorial position of ClarkCountyToday.com

I strongly oppose the extension of TriMet’s light rail as part of the Interstate Bridge replacement project. This is a regional issue that affects all of us in Clark County. The Interstate Bridge Replacement Program (IBR) design wastes precious space on the bridge at an exorbitant cost. Last week IBR released their Final Supplementary Environmental Impact Statement (FSEIS).

From actual C-TRAN ridership numbers, clearly there is no need for light rail. Bus service can easily continue to meet demand for public transit at a vastly lower cost, both now and in the future.

Bus ridership over the I-5 bridge has decreased by half in the 20 years from 2006-2026.

Douglas Tweet

From C-TRAN via a Public Records Request I received monthly National Transit Database (NTD) data for “boardings” on bus routes across I-5 bridge from January 2018 -January 2026. From the monthly data I estimated the weekday average, shown in the plot below. The green line shows Express bus routes1 to downtown Portland and OHSU, the red line shows Route 60 to Jantzen Beach shopping area & Delta Park MAX station, and the blue line shows the total bus boardings.

(1 Express routes are 105, 105X, 134, 157, 190, and 199. In 2022 Routes 105, 134, 157, & 199 were consolidated into Route 105.)

After the big Covid drop in 2020, ridership has recovered slightly. Yet, for the last 3 years total weekday bus boardings have stagnated at ~1500, (blue line). In the IBR plan, Express bus service will continue. Light rail would merely replace bus Route 60 to connect to the existing Max Yellow Line at Delta Park, a train that winds slowly through Portland city streets, stopping all along the way. Route 60 ridership has stagnated at ~900 boardings, or about 450 people, if round trips. However, not all riders board the MAX light rail, since some go to Jantzen Beach Shopping area. IBR executives explained at the April 21 C-TRAN Board meeting the extension of light rail is expected to cost about $3.5 billion out of the $14.4 billion estimated total cost for I-5 bridge. Light rail is an enormous waste of tax payer (and toll-payer) money, is not required for 900 weekday bus rides, and is not required on the I-5 Bridge at all.

How have these numbers changed over the last 20 years? See next plot.

2006: 3300 weekday bus trips (see page 3-24 of the Final Environmental Impact Statement from the CRC project )

From 2006-2026, bus ridership across I-5 bridge has decreased by half. Many now work remotely, an enduring trend.

Yet, IBR predicts that by 2045 transit ridership will somehow increase by 20x. (FSEIS Executive Summary, Table 3, p S-18). This is not remotely believable.

Forecasts for ridership and performance of TriMet’s light rail have consistently greatly exceeded reality, as documented for years by the Cascade Policy Institute. For instance, TriMet gave inflated forecasts for the MAX Yellow line, the line that TriMet hopes to extend over the I-5 Bridge. Cascade Policy reports:

“ What We Were Promised: The FEIS forecasted ridership in the corridor to dramatically increase with the building of the Yellow Line. By 2020 the line’s ridership was expected to have 18,100 average weekday riders.

What We Received: At no point since the Yellow Line opened has ridership met projected levels. In April 2019 ridership only reached 13,270, 26.7% less than projected…From March 2016 to March 2019 ridership levels decreased by 3.6%…

Lower than promised ridership isn’t unique to the Yellow Line; every TriMet rail forecast has been wrong, and always wrong on the high side.”

Douglas Tweet
Camas