The poll, conducted by Washington-based Voter Sciences LLC, asked a balanced cross-section of registered voters from the southwest WA district which candidate they would choose in a series of head-to-head election scenarios

A rigorous poll of voters in Washington’s Third Congressional District (WA-03) commissioned by the Washington State Republican Party (WAGOP) finds that the current incumbent member of congress from the district loses to any of the best-known possible Republican challengers.

The poll, conducted by Washington-based Voter Sciences LLC, asked a balanced cross-section of registered voters from the southwest WA district which candidate they would choose in a series of head-to-head election scenarios. Pitted against any of the three potential opponents with the highest name recognition — State Sen. John Braun, education reform advocate Heidi St. John, and State Rep. Jim Walsh — the incumbent congresswoman loses.

“We’ve been hearing so much speculation about the WA-03 race. Who’s in? Who’s out? Who might get in? So, we decided to take a scientific look at how different prospects fair in the general election match-ups voters in the area are most likely to see,” says WAGOP Executive Director Matthew Frohlich.

The poll found the following results:

• Braun vs. Gluesenkamp Perez: John Braun beats Gluesenkamp Perez 47.55% to 41.29% with 11.16% undecided.
• St. John vs. Gluesenkamp Perez: Heidi St. John beats Gluesenkamp Perez 45.84% to 42.78% with 11.38% undecided.
• Walsh vs. Gluesenkamp Perez: Jim Walsh beats Gluesenkamp Perez 47.88% to 41.96% with 10.16% undecided.

“This poll confirms with solid data what people who follow Washington politics already know: Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is an extremely vulnerable congresswoman. Voters in the district prefer any of the most likely potential challengers to the weak incumbent,” Frohlich says.

The poll was structured to reflect a realistic mix of voters from the Third Congressional District — and to produce a realistic model of how the election in November 2026 is likely to turn out.

Frohlich concludes: “Braun, St. John and Walsh are all Republicans—but they are three very different people with very different styles, and all three could defeat the current congresswoman. This speaks volumes about how Marie Gluesenkamp Perez’s strategy of talking and dressing like a conservative in the district, but voting in D.C. like a radical leftist, isn’t working.”

Information provided by the Washington State Republican Party.

---

Also read:

• 
  Let’s Go Washington prepares to gather signatures for income tax repeal effort
  Let’s Go Washington needs 308,911 signatures by July 2 to put the income tax before voters in November.
• 
  Letter: ‘Once you decide your political opponents are sick, you don’t have to listen to anything they say’
  Camas resident Tony Teso argues Ken Vance’s column reframes political disagreement as mental illness to avoid engaging on substance.
• 
  Opinion: Greg Johnson’s $2 million contract delivered a huge mess
  Johnson’s $1.9M pay coincided with IBR costs tripling and construction timeline doubling to 20 years.
• 
  POLL: What issue should be the top priority for Southwest Washington’s next member of Congress?
  Sen. John Braun criticized WA’s new income tax while outlining his congressional priorities in Vancouver.
• 
  Opinion: The Democrats’ disproportionate response to Trump
  Ken Vance argues Democratic hostility toward Trump has crossed from politics into dangerous derangement.