In the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council’s preliminary June forecast, it predicted a national GDP increase of 1.1% in 2023
Logan Washburn
The Center Square Washington
Washington state is predicting an economic “slowdown” in the U.S., according to a recent forecast.
“The forecast expects a slowdown in U.S. economic activity this year and in early 2024,” said Stephen Lerch, executive director of the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council. “Compared to our March forecast, this slowdown has been shifted forward in time.”
In the council’s preliminary June forecast, it predicted a national GDP increase of 1.1% in 2023, 0.7% in 2024, 2% in both 2025 and 2026 then 1.9% in 2027. It based these numbers on May’s Blue Chip Forecast, according to Lerch.
“I don’t think this forecast qualifies as having a recession,” he said. “A commonly used definition is having two successive quarters of negative GDP growth.”
The council predicted Washington’s employment will increase 2.3% this year, and that its employment growth will average 0.7% from 2024 to 2027.
“We expect slower growth during the remainder of the forecast as the U.S. economy slows,” the forecast reads.
Washington’s unemployment rate has been rising since a low of 3.9% in June 2022. While the state’s unemployment declined from 4.6% in February to 4.3% in April, the forecast predicted a peak rate of 5% in 2024. The council expects it will fall to 4.5% by 2027.
At the same time, the state added 30,900 nonfarm payroll jobs from January to April, while the council only expected an increase of 3,200.
“Policymakers have been trying to bring together and balance out the supply and demand for workers,” Paul Turek, state economist for Washington’s Employment Security Department, previously said.
The council also predicts national oil prices will decrease. It predicted in March the price per barrel in the third quarter of 2023 would be $77, but now expects the price will be $74 per barrel. By 2027, the council expects the price will be $63 per barrel.
“Lower oil prices are a positive for Washington and other states that do not have oil wells,” Lerch said. “They enable consumers and businesses to spend less on energy-related expenses and more on other goods and services, or increase saving.”
The Center Square reached out to Turek for comment, but did not hear back in time for publication.
This report was first published by The Center Square Washington.
Also read:
- 17th District lawmakers Kevin Waters and David Stuebe decry passage of state income tax bill after marathon floor debate
Reps. Kevin Waters and David Stuebe condemn Senate Bill 6346, warning the new state income tax sends more money into the general fund without real reform, risks expanding to every family, and ignores Washington’s affordability crisis. - Opinion: Washington’s fight for liberty
Conservative columnist Nancy Churchill argues that despite the passage of a new 9.9% state income tax, signs of shifting political momentum in Washington state give reason for hope and continued action. - 18th District Reps. Stephanie McClintock and John Ley denounce passage of state income tax
Following a marathon 24-hour House floor debate, 18th District Reps. Stephanie McClintock and John Ley denounce Senate Bill 6346, a new 9.9% state income tax on household income above $1 million, warning it could expand broadly, harm Washington’s economy, and face serious constitutional challenges. - County pays $7.5 million to widow of VPD Officer Donald Sahota
Clark County has agreed to pay $7.5 million to the widow of Vancouver Police Officer Donald Sahota to resolve a negligence lawsuit following the 2022 incident where a sheriff’s deputy mistakenly shot the off-duty officer during a confrontation with a robbery suspect. - Opinion: Brandi Kruse and I are feeling discouraged but we’re planning to continue advocating for political change. Will you?
Clark County Today Editor Ken Vance reflects on a discouraging week in Washington state politics, echoing Brandi Kruse’s frustrations over Democrats’ state income tax victory and local decisions on transit and ICE while urging conservatives not to give up on advocating for political change. - OII passes 60-day point in Vancouver Police Department use of deadly force investigation
The Washington State Office of Independent Investigations is just past 60 days into its investigation of a Vancouver Police Department use of deadly force involving officers Sean Donaldson and Christopher Holmquist and the death of 44-year-old Perry J. Sellars after a late-night disturbance call on NE 46th Street. - Opinion: ‘My thoughts on yesterday’s tragic state income tax’
Leslie Lewallen argues Democrats passed an unconstitutional “millionaires tax” on March 10, 2026, rejected more than 70 Republican amendments, and set Washington on a path she says will harm jobs, schools, and families statewide.
