The poll, conducted by Washington-based Voter Sciences LLC, asked a balanced cross-section of registered voters from the southwest WA district which candidate they would choose in a series of head-to-head election scenarios

A rigorous poll of voters in Washington’s Third Congressional District (WA-03) commissioned by the Washington State Republican Party (WAGOP) finds that the current incumbent member of congress from the district loses to any of the best-known possible Republican challengers.

The poll, conducted by Washington-based Voter Sciences LLC, asked a balanced cross-section of registered voters from the southwest WA district which candidate they would choose in a series of head-to-head election scenarios. Pitted against any of the three potential opponents with the highest name recognition — State Sen. John Braun, education reform advocate Heidi St. John, and State Rep. Jim Walsh — the incumbent congresswoman loses.

“We’ve been hearing so much speculation about the WA-03 race. Who’s in? Who’s out? Who might get in? So, we decided to take a scientific look at how different prospects fair in the general election match-ups voters in the area are most likely to see,” says WAGOP Executive Director Matthew Frohlich.

The poll found the following results:

• Braun vs. Gluesenkamp Perez: John Braun beats Gluesenkamp Perez 47.55% to 41.29% with 11.16% undecided.
• St. John vs. Gluesenkamp Perez: Heidi St. John beats Gluesenkamp Perez 45.84% to 42.78% with 11.38% undecided.
• Walsh vs. Gluesenkamp Perez: Jim Walsh beats Gluesenkamp Perez 47.88% to 41.96% with 10.16% undecided.

“This poll confirms with solid data what people who follow Washington politics already know: Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is an extremely vulnerable congresswoman. Voters in the district prefer any of the most likely potential challengers to the weak incumbent,” Frohlich says.

The poll was structured to reflect a realistic mix of voters from the Third Congressional District — and to produce a realistic model of how the election in November 2026 is likely to turn out.

Frohlich concludes: “Braun, St. John and Walsh are all Republicans—but they are three very different people with very different styles, and all three could defeat the current congresswoman. This speaks volumes about how Marie Gluesenkamp Perez’s strategy of talking and dressing like a conservative in the district, but voting in D.C. like a radical leftist, isn’t working.”

Information provided by the Washington State Republican Party.

---

Also read:

• 
  Rep. John Ley introduces bill to balance representation on Washington transportation boards
  Legislation introduced by Rep. John Ley seeks to change how transportation board seats are allocated and prevent funding penalties tied to population-based representation rules.
• 
  Opinion: More taxes sadly the Washington way
  Elizabeth New (Hovde) argues that Washington lawmakers continue to turn to new taxes instead of addressing state spending priorities, particularly in health care policy.
• 
  Maneuver to shore up WA’s transportation budget could be reversed
  Washington lawmakers are weighing whether to reverse a planned sales tax transfer to transportation as they confront a looming operating budget shortfall.
• 
  Rep. John Ley issues statement after I-5 Bridge replacement meeting yields few answers
  Rep. John Ley criticized the IBR Program for failing to provide updated cost estimates or key design decisions following a recent legislative oversight committee meeting.
• 
  Opinion: Blood on the highways fails to move Ferguson and Kotek
  Lars Larson criticizes Washington and Oregon governors over licensing policies he says are linked to deadly truck crashes and ongoing highway safety risks.