The poll, conducted by Washington-based Voter Sciences LLC, asked a balanced cross-section of registered voters from the southwest WA district which candidate they would choose in a series of head-to-head election scenarios

A rigorous poll of voters in Washington’s Third Congressional District (WA-03) commissioned by the Washington State Republican Party (WAGOP) finds that the current incumbent member of congress from the district loses to any of the best-known possible Republican challengers.

The poll, conducted by Washington-based Voter Sciences LLC, asked a balanced cross-section of registered voters from the southwest WA district which candidate they would choose in a series of head-to-head election scenarios. Pitted against any of the three potential opponents with the highest name recognition — State Sen. John Braun, education reform advocate Heidi St. John, and State Rep. Jim Walsh — the incumbent congresswoman loses.

“We’ve been hearing so much speculation about the WA-03 race. Who’s in? Who’s out? Who might get in? So, we decided to take a scientific look at how different prospects fair in the general election match-ups voters in the area are most likely to see,” says WAGOP Executive Director Matthew Frohlich.

The poll found the following results:

• Braun vs. Gluesenkamp Perez: John Braun beats Gluesenkamp Perez 47.55% to 41.29% with 11.16% undecided.
• St. John vs. Gluesenkamp Perez: Heidi St. John beats Gluesenkamp Perez 45.84% to 42.78% with 11.38% undecided.
• Walsh vs. Gluesenkamp Perez: Jim Walsh beats Gluesenkamp Perez 47.88% to 41.96% with 10.16% undecided.

“This poll confirms with solid data what people who follow Washington politics already know: Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is an extremely vulnerable congresswoman. Voters in the district prefer any of the most likely potential challengers to the weak incumbent,” Frohlich says.

The poll was structured to reflect a realistic mix of voters from the Third Congressional District — and to produce a realistic model of how the election in November 2026 is likely to turn out.

Frohlich concludes: “Braun, St. John and Walsh are all Republicans—but they are three very different people with very different styles, and all three could defeat the current congresswoman. This speaks volumes about how Marie Gluesenkamp Perez’s strategy of talking and dressing like a conservative in the district, but voting in D.C. like a radical leftist, isn’t working.”

Information provided by the Washington State Republican Party.

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