Because nothing says ‘expert’ like getting it wrong for 50 years
Nancy Churchill
Dangerous Rhetoric
The Congressional Budget Office treats Americans like machines on an assembly line. In their world, tax cuts don’t spark a single new job. Nobody works an extra shift. No one starts a business on the side. It’s a fantasyland model and it’s exactly how the CBO “scored” the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB). No wonder their warnings about deficits are being laughed right out of the room.
This isn’t the first time the CBO has missed the mark. Remember Obamacare? The CBO promised cheaper premiums and budget savings. What we got were soaring costs and deeper debt. From Medicare Part D to the Clinton-era tobacco settlement, the agency’s track record of error is almost legendary. The Foundation for Government Accountability laid out ten of their worst blunders, showing this isn’t some conservative gripe — it’s statistical malpractice and misinformation.
Science is not democracy
The director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, puts it bluntly: “Science is not democracy. Truth is not democracy.” His dynamic scoring model predicted three percent growth after the 2017 tax cuts. The media mocked him — until he was proven right. Run those same dynamic models on the OBBB and the growth outlook is even stronger, translating to trillions in extra revenue the CBO refuses to count.
Here’s the math the headline writers won’t print: The CBO pegs long-term growth at a paltry 1.8 percent. Plug in a still-conservative 2.6 percent — consistent with past tax cut results—and you add $2.6 trillion in new revenue over a decade.
That alone flips the OBBB from red-ink villain to a $173 billion deficit reducer.
The CBO misinformation doesn’t end there. Its score ignores billions in new tariff revenue, undercounts royalties from unleashed American energy, and minimizes the surge of payroll and income taxes that flow when people actually get back to work.
How many seniors?
The left’s claim that 16 million seniors would lose Medicaid under the One Big Beautiful Bill doesn’t hold water. While total Medicaid enrollment might shrink by 10 to 17 million, the number of seniors actually affected is far smaller. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that most people who would lose Medicaid would be impacted by work requirements. Most seniors over 65 are exempt from work requirements, and only around seven million seniors even rely on Medicaid.
You can do the math: Seven is less than 16. That means the 16 million figure is another “fake news” scare tactic rather than serious policy analysis.
Success is a paycheck
Another claim from the left tries to pit the wealthy against the poor, a classic Marxist class warfare strategy. “This is a smoke and mirrors tactic to try to deceive the American people into thinking that the One Big Beautiful Bill will benefit the top 10 percent at the expense of the bottom 10 percent. Ironically, the only thing Democrats are proving is that our policies are a massive success,” said House Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington.
“First, they’re not measuring economic benefits to low-income earners, they’re measuring federal resources distributed. For instance, there are fewer transfer payments to people on welfare if you prohibit illegal immigrants from accessing these programs and enact common sense work requirements to stop trapping people in dependence.
Second, when you allow Americans from every walk of life to keep more of their income, you lift millions out of poverty, just as we witnessed in President Trump’s first term.” Arrington continued, “Democrats measure success by how many people are stuck on the welfare rolls; Republicans measure success by how many Americans are lifted off of them.”
That’s the right measure — success isn’t a swipe card, it’s a paycheck.
A working-class windfall
On taxes, the OBBB is a working-class windfall. It raises the standard deduction, boosts the child tax credit, eliminates federal tax on tips, overtime, and even car loan interest. Seniors also see real tax relief, and best of all — it blocks the biggest tax hike in American history. That’s money staying where it belongs: in the pockets of the people who earned it.
Combine those tax cuts with real deregulation, energy independence, and a secure border, and you’ve got what Director Hassett calls “jet fuel for the economy.” Wages go up, rural hospitals stay open, and for once, Main Street gets the kind of boom Wall Street’s been enjoying for years.
Washington lawmakers respond
In central Washington, Congressman Dan Newhouse saw that promise and voted yes. He backed the OBBB because, while not perfect, it keeps taxes low, reins in government spending, and strengthens federal aid programs for the long haul. He highlighted its wins for Central Washington — protecting farmers and small businesses, boosting the Child Tax Credit, expanding nuclear energy investment, and blocking the biggest tax hike in history. He also pointed to major gains in border security, military strength, and energy production to fight inflation and lower costs.
Rep. Michael Baumgartner of Eastern Washington agrees. He pointed to $150 billion for border security, $50 billion for rural health, and tax cuts that “keep more money where it belongs: in the pockets of working families.”
But head west across the Cascades and the tone changes. Governor Bob Ferguson calls the bill “morally bankrupt,” and Senator Patty Murray claims it robs the poor to enrich the wealthy. That partisan divide says it all — one side trusts the people who earn the money; the other trusts bureaucrats to redistribute it. Baseless claims that rural hospitals will close ignore the $50 billion fund set aside for rural health.
Make believe or science?
So the choice is simple. You can believe the CBO’s “fake news” model where nobody tries harder and nothing ever grows. Or you can trust what history, data, and real-world results show — and what hard-working Americans already know: Cutting taxes works.
The OBBB isn’t just bold; it’s built for the real world. Let the partisan CBO economists keep spinning their fantasies. We’re focused on unleashing the coming golden age of American prosperity.
Nancy Churchill is a writer and educator in rural eastern Washington state, and the chair of the Ferry County Republican Party. She may be reached at DangerousRhetoric@pm.me. The opinions expressed in Dangerous Rhetoric are her own. Dangerous Rhetoric is available on Substack, X, and Rumble
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