In the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council’s preliminary June forecast, it predicted a national GDP increase of 1.1% in 2023
Logan Washburn
The Center Square Washington
Washington state is predicting an economic “slowdown” in the U.S., according to a recent forecast.
“The forecast expects a slowdown in U.S. economic activity this year and in early 2024,” said Stephen Lerch, executive director of the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council. “Compared to our March forecast, this slowdown has been shifted forward in time.”
In the council’s preliminary June forecast, it predicted a national GDP increase of 1.1% in 2023, 0.7% in 2024, 2% in both 2025 and 2026 then 1.9% in 2027. It based these numbers on May’s Blue Chip Forecast, according to Lerch.
“I don’t think this forecast qualifies as having a recession,” he said. “A commonly used definition is having two successive quarters of negative GDP growth.”
The council predicted Washington’s employment will increase 2.3% this year, and that its employment growth will average 0.7% from 2024 to 2027.
“We expect slower growth during the remainder of the forecast as the U.S. economy slows,” the forecast reads.
Washington’s unemployment rate has been rising since a low of 3.9% in June 2022. While the state’s unemployment declined from 4.6% in February to 4.3% in April, the forecast predicted a peak rate of 5% in 2024. The council expects it will fall to 4.5% by 2027.
At the same time, the state added 30,900 nonfarm payroll jobs from January to April, while the council only expected an increase of 3,200.
“Policymakers have been trying to bring together and balance out the supply and demand for workers,” Paul Turek, state economist for Washington’s Employment Security Department, previously said.
The council also predicts national oil prices will decrease. It predicted in March the price per barrel in the third quarter of 2023 would be $77, but now expects the price will be $74 per barrel. By 2027, the council expects the price will be $63 per barrel.
“Lower oil prices are a positive for Washington and other states that do not have oil wells,” Lerch said. “They enable consumers and businesses to spend less on energy-related expenses and more on other goods and services, or increase saving.”
The Center Square reached out to Turek for comment, but did not hear back in time for publication.
This report was first published by The Center Square Washington.
Also read:
- WATCH – Detransitioner to providers: ‘Please just stop’ gender surgeries on minors
Detransitioner Soren Aldaco shared her experience and urged providers to stop encouraging gender surgeries on minors as HHS moves to restrict federal funding for such procedures. - Without pennies, should retailers round up or down?
As the penny disappears from circulation, states and retailers are grappling with how cash purchases should be rounded and who should benefit from those decisions. - Opinion: IBR promotes ‘giving away’ historic interstate bridges while withholding cost estimate for replacement
Neighbors for a Better Crossing argues the IBR program is promoting demolition of the historic Interstate Bridges without releasing updated cost estimates or current seismic data to justify replacement. - Opinion: Solving Washington’s deficit without tax increases
Ryan Frost argues Washington’s budget shortfall is driven by rapid spending growth rather than insufficient tax revenue, calling for slower spending and program reductions instead of new taxes. - Washington State Patrol loses 34th trooper in the line of duty
Washington State Patrol Trooper Tara-Marysa Guting was killed while investigating a crash on State Route 509 in Tacoma, marking the 34th line-of-duty death in the agency’s history. - Opinion: Bikes in crosswalks
Doug Dahl explains how Washington law treats bicycles as both vehicles and pedestrians, depending on where and how they are being ridden. - County seeks volunteers to serve on Railroad Advisory Board
Clark County is accepting applications to fill up to two positions on a citizen advisory board focused on oversight and guidance for the county-owned Chelatchie Prairie Railroad.
