The poll, conducted by Washington-based Voter Sciences LLC, asked a balanced cross-section of registered voters from the southwest WA district which candidate they would choose in a series of head-to-head election scenarios
A rigorous poll of voters in Washington’s Third Congressional District (WA-03) commissioned by the Washington State Republican Party (WAGOP) finds that the current incumbent member of congress from the district loses to any of the best-known possible Republican challengers.
The poll, conducted by Washington-based Voter Sciences LLC, asked a balanced cross-section of registered voters from the southwest WA district which candidate they would choose in a series of head-to-head election scenarios. Pitted against any of the three potential opponents with the highest name recognition — State Sen. John Braun, education reform advocate Heidi St. John, and State Rep. Jim Walsh — the incumbent congresswoman loses.
“We’ve been hearing so much speculation about the WA-03 race. Who’s in? Who’s out? Who might get in? So, we decided to take a scientific look at how different prospects fair in the general election match-ups voters in the area are most likely to see,” says WAGOP Executive Director Matthew Frohlich.
The poll found the following results:
- Braun vs. Gluesenkamp Perez: John Braun beats Gluesenkamp Perez 47.55% to 41.29% with 11.16% undecided.
- St. John vs. Gluesenkamp Perez: Heidi St. John beats Gluesenkamp Perez 45.84% to 42.78% with 11.38% undecided.
- Walsh vs. Gluesenkamp Perez: Jim Walsh beats Gluesenkamp Perez 47.88% to 41.96% with 10.16% undecided.
“This poll confirms with solid data what people who follow Washington politics already know: Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is an extremely vulnerable congresswoman. Voters in the district prefer any of the most likely potential challengers to the weak incumbent,” Frohlich says.
The poll was structured to reflect a realistic mix of voters from the Third Congressional District — and to produce a realistic model of how the election in November 2026 is likely to turn out.
Frohlich concludes: “Braun, St. John and Walsh are all Republicans—but they are three very different people with very different styles, and all three could defeat the current congresswoman. This speaks volumes about how Marie Gluesenkamp Perez’s strategy of talking and dressing like a conservative in the district, but voting in D.C. like a radical leftist, isn’t working.”
Information provided by the Washington State Republican Party.
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Matthew Frohlich is not always honest with us republicans. He’s been putting his spin on politics for quite some time here in Washington. Prior under chair Caleb H. Who was and still is a total RINO. Caleb made it clear to us in Clark County he was not conservative or would he remain non bias here. He backed the RINOs within the body of PCO’s. Well Matthew is nice enough when interacting with most people. But he lacks the backbone to take on anything to do with the party’s internal problems. He listens and does nothing to change the direction of the problems. Jim Walsh same thing. He’s alright until we want endorsed candidate promoted, protected, and defended. It took a horrible amount to pressure to get the candidates chosen by the delegates promoted. Sue Peterson got next to nothing from the state party, Semi Bird got slandered and attacked by people these two men are promoting this week. When will the leadership do the right things? Never is the conclusion I’ve come to. So, this or any other poll taken by these members has next to no validity. I gave Jim the benefit of the doubt for a few months. But not today. It’s all a setup. We must do better citizens. Lifelong politicians are playing a dog and pony show. Matthew is a young republican and sits on the ex-board giving them another vote. We the PCO’s are elected by our neighbors. The Young RINOs are placed and answer to nobody. They have been working against our candidates for a decade here. I want the Clark County Chapter censured and the (R) removed from them in this county. I will be making necessary motions at the next CCRPCC meeting. Enough is Enough don’t you think? In my opinion Braum announced early to block us the PCO body from bringing a vetted endorsed candidate forward. Without us being blamed for endorsing and splitting the vote ourselves. Heidi, I hope you just stay home as well., John Braun will never get past with recommendation to endorse. Same old BS. I myself will give my advice. John, Jim and Heidi go back home and let the real conservatives bring the peoples candidate forward for this seat! You’re exposing yourselves as the problems you actually are and have been. PCO940 Clark County, WA. PS take a seat boys and girls and let us handle this please. People reporters ignore these rats. We have other races to go win here. If Jim Walsh refuses to take on the internal RINO issues in his own ex-board. He has nothing to really bring to congress. weekly updates are nice, But I expected to see some problems delt with. He’ll act as if there is nothing to worry about. Well Semi Bird and Sue Peterson and many others were attacked from our own party. And we hear crickets. Pathetic leadership in my view seat. And the Young Republicans of Washington state answer to nobody. Why are they seated unvetted un-elected and against the most solid republicans daily. I want them gone from leadership rolls. Who are they. Bullies and bought and paid for agitators and protectors of incumbent RINOS. Like Paul Harris, JHB, Julie Olson and many more, I know sounds ridiculous but I’m here to educate you and warn you of what is truly taking place in this state. I will be bringing the proof and the examples forward real soon. Lenny Chacon is chairman of the YR’s and who made him king? He did himself. With help from members who aren’t close to being young. my suggestion to the young. Just go get involved with your county party and be involved with us. There are a lot of very unethical and most likely highly illegal activities taking place by some of these so-called young republicans. Definition of young please?